Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

GPT-3 Will Accelerate The Privatization of Internet Communities

What GPT-3 is, GPT-3's capabilities, if GPT-3 will replace jobs, and how it affects social media.

Jul 30, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Am I getting ripped off writing at Every?

Screenshots of my contract and the financial model I used to decide

Apr 22, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Uber and Lyft Live Once Again

What drivers think of AB 5, why it was written, and the pricing differences between services

Aug 28, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Nike: Direct Relationships & Digital Penetration

Nike just released their latest earnings report. We dive into their "Consumer Direct Offense" strategy, how they combined their brand marketing with technology.

Oct 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Is YC the Monopoly It Thinks It Is?

The Pricing Power Flex

Feb 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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You Can’t Math Your Way to Success

Whether in art, startups, or parenting, you can only control so much

3 Jun 21, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Explaining the Hertz Situation

A layman’s guide to bankruptcy

Jun 18, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The One-person Billion-dollar Company

Can AI agents make you a billionaire?

1 Apr 3, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Sometimes You’re The Datadog, Sometimes You’re The Hydrant

The history of cloud computing, how DevOps and Observability became so big, and the fate of Datadog

Aug 13, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Finance is Narrative Not Numbers

The Subtle Art of Manipulating CFOs

3 Aug 25, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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What I Got Wrong About VR

Whoopsie, I may have gotten a little excited

Jul 16, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Gross Margin: An Indicator of Market Power

What America's Oldest Jeweler Can Teach Us About the Value of Bling

1 Apr 29, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Vibes Are a Legitimate Economic Indicator

In her debut book, Kyla Scanlon makes the case for feeling the numbers

Jul 23, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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In Defense of WeWork’s Community-Adjusted EBITDA

Clarifying the murky middle ground between Gross Profits and Net Income

1 May 13, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Twilio’s Second Act

Twilio rode its API to a $66B valuation. Now it’s trying to become the Universal Switchboard for the internet.

Jul 28, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Can Political Betting Markets Predict Election Outcomes?

Polls and pundits don't do a good job of predicting election results. But what about prediction markets? In this post, we discuss what makes a good market and what could cause it to be wrong.

Nov 4, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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My Favorite Company Deep Dives of 2020

Taking a look at the best companies deep dives of the past year, including posts on Fiverr/Upwork, Carta, Tyler Corporation, CostCo and more

Jan 7, 2021 by Adam Keesling

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The End of Software, Again

The impending doom of horizontal SaaS

Oct 7, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Don’t Dismiss the Apple Vision Pro

Apple has a hit on its hands. Will it seize the opportunity?

2 Apr 18, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Content Moderation Double-Bind Theory

The market failures damning content to ever increasing sensationalism

Sep 2, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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The Creator Power Scale: A Formula to Determine if Platforms are Ripping You Off

An examination of the Twitch Hack data

2 Oct 28, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Pricing Strategy is Product Strategy

How Technology Enables Companies to Charge More

Jul 9, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Google Goes All In on AI

The company has every possible advantage, but can they use it?

🔒 May 15, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The AI Wars Have Begun

OpenAI, Meta, and the $120 billion battle for the future of intelligence

🔒 Apr 30, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Who is Making Money in Space?

Exploring the SPAC Frontier

Oct 14, 2021 by Evan Armstrong and Ryan Duffy