Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

Subscribe
Napkin Math

Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

3 Dec 1, 2020 by Adam Keesling

Napkin Math

The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

May 5, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

The Internet Is Still Early

Neither hellscape nor utopia—the internet makes society anew

2 Aug 17, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

Oct 14, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Technology Is Good Actually

Startups screw up sometimes, but making things cheaper is a moral necessity

Mar 16, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

The Meh-taverse

A Book Review

1 Aug 4, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Should I Quit and Start a Franchise?

I’m wondering if I can deep-fry my way out of the apocalypse

4 Mar 2, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Automate the Simple Stuff With Stupid Tools

This is the dumbest AI will ever be—and it’s still magic

7 Oct 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

When Content Creation Goes to Zero

AI is making a world where it costs nothing to produce anything. What happens next?

Feb 23, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

How AI Changes the Media Business

Why community and social network effects will be key to winning the future

6 Mar 23, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

It Is Always Time to Build

Interest rates do not equal innovation rates

Jan 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Selective Optimism

People who promise high returns forever are liars

Jun 16, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

The Bugman Cometh

My sick, unexplainable desire to buy a face computer

1 Jun 6, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

The Zone of Deployment

How can you know when to invest?

3 Jan 25, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

The Futility of Utility

A personal essay

Apr 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Why Are Republicans Better at Making Money on the Internet?

What consumer tech and media got wrong

May 11, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

The Quest for Monopoly

A history of stock market exchanges: from fragmentation to monopoly, monopoly to fragmentation and back again.

Aug 25, 2020 by Adam Keesling

Napkin Math

The Internet Demands Greatness

No one cares, so take more risks

5 Aug 31, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

AI Can Construct a Trading Strategy Now

And it means there are big changes ahead for what software can do

Jun 22, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

You Need to Know What You Are Betting On

How to think about investing in a startup versus a public company

1 Sep 7, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

How Chegg Grew Their Share Price 20x In Four Years

Chegg grew their stock price from under $10 to over $85. They did it by changing their business model from the ground up and investing in digital media content.

Sep 18, 2020 by Adam Keesling

Napkin Math

How Startups Can Survive the Creator Economy Winter

The Race for Revenue Share

May 19, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

We Should All Want to Be Mitt Romney

What is the point of F U money if you never say F U?

2 Nov 9, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Software is Eating the Individual

The Embedded Human

Jun 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Cash—Kingmaker or Killer?

A examination of when cash can anoint a market winner

Apr 28, 2022 by Kyle Harrison