Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

Aug 20, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The Internet Is Still Early

Neither hellscape nor utopia—the internet makes society anew

2 Aug 17, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

May 5, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

3 Dec 1, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

Oct 14, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Technology Is Good Actually

Startups screw up sometimes, but making things cheaper is a moral necessity

Mar 16, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Meh-taverse

A Book Review

1 Aug 4, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Should I Quit and Start a Franchise?

I’m wondering if I can deep-fry my way out of the apocalypse

4 Mar 2, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Automate the Simple Stuff With Stupid Tools

This is the dumbest AI will ever be—and it’s still magic

7 Oct 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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When Content Creation Goes to Zero

AI is making a world where it costs nothing to produce anything. What happens next?

Feb 23, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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How AI Changes the Media Business

Why community and social network effects will be key to winning the future

6 Mar 23, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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It Is Always Time to Build

Interest rates do not equal innovation rates

Jan 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Selective Optimism

People who promise high returns forever are liars

Jun 16, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Bugman Cometh

My sick, unexplainable desire to buy a face computer

1 Jun 6, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Zone of Deployment

How can you know when to invest?

3 Jan 25, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The Internet Demands Greatness

No one cares, so take more risks

5 Aug 31, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Futility of Utility

A personal essay

Apr 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Why Are Republicans Better at Making Money on the Internet?

What consumer tech and media got wrong

May 11, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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AI Can Construct a Trading Strategy Now

And it means there are big changes ahead for what software can do

Jun 22, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Quest for Monopoly

A history of stock market exchanges: from fragmentation to monopoly, monopoly to fragmentation and back again.

Aug 25, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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You Need to Know What You Are Betting On

How to think about investing in a startup versus a public company

1 Sep 7, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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How Chegg Grew Their Share Price 20x In Four Years

Chegg grew their stock price from under $10 to over $85. They did it by changing their business model from the ground up and investing in digital media content.

Sep 18, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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How Startups Can Survive the Creator Economy Winter

The Race for Revenue Share

May 19, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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We Should All Want to Be Mitt Romney

What is the point of F U money if you never say F U?

3 Nov 9, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Software is Eating the Individual

The Embedded Human

Jun 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong