Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology, every Tuesday and Thursday.

Dec 16, 2021

The primary trends I’m investing in next year

Inflation, web3, embedded fintech, investing in people, and the newsletter winter that is coming

Apr 15, 2021

COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An Intuitive Explainer for How To Lose Money and Win Anyway

Oct 30, 2020

What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

Mar 30, 2022

Twitter’s Probably Screwed

The Rugged Landscape of Digital Advertising

Dec 1, 2020

Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

Feb 23, 2023

When Content Creation Goes to Zero

AI is making a world where it costs nothing to produce anything. What happens next?

Oct 14, 2022

Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

May 5, 2022

The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

Dec 21, 2023

Should You Fire This Newsletter? 2023 Edition

2024 is the year I go big

Aug 20, 2020

How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

Mar 16, 2023

Technology Is Good Actually

Startups screw up sometimes, but making things cheaper is a moral necessity

Oct 5, 2023

Automate the Simple Stuff With Stupid Tools

This is the dumbest AI will ever be—and it’s still magic

May 30, 2024

The Art of Scaling Taste

How MSCHF turns irreverent ideas into a real business

Jun 6, 2023

The Bugman Cometh

My sick, unexplainable desire to buy a face computer

Mar 2, 2023

Should I Quit and Start a Franchise?

I’m wondering if I can deep-fry my way out of the apocalypse

Aug 17, 2023

The Internet Is Still Early

Neither hellscape nor utopia—the internet makes society anew

Sep 18, 2020

How Chegg Grew Their Share Price 20x In Four Years

Chegg grew their stock price from under $10 to over $85. They did it by changing their business model from the ground up and investing in digital media content.

Jan 25, 2024

The Zone of Deployment

How can you know when to invest?

Jun 10, 2022

Software is Eating the Individual

The Embedded Human

Aug 4, 2022

The Meh-taverse

A Book Review

Jun 22, 2023

AI Can Construct a Trading Strategy Now

And it means there are big changes ahead for what software can do

Aug 31, 2023

The Internet Demands Greatness

No one cares, so take more risks

May 11, 2023

Why Are Republicans Better at Making Money on the Internet?

What consumer tech and media got wrong

Sep 7, 2023

You Need to Know What You Are Betting On

How to think about investing in a startup versus a public company