Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

Meditations on AI Mecca

A dispatch from a hacker conference in San Francisco

84 Dec 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Twitter’s Probably Screwed

The Rugged Landscape of Digital Advertising

78 🔒 Mar 30, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Selective Optimism

People who promise high returns forever are liars

73 🔒 Jun 16, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Futility of Utility

A personal essay

72 🔒 Apr 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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It Is Always Time to Build

Interest rates do not equal innovation rates

70 Jan 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Quest for Monopoly

A history of stock market exchanges: from fragmentation to monopoly, monopoly to fragmentation and back again.

69 Aug 25, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

66 Oct 14, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Meh-taverse

A Book Review

66 Aug 4, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How Startups Can Survive the Creator Economy Winter

The Race for Revenue Share

64 May 19, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How Chegg Grew Their Share Price 20x In Four Years

Chegg grew their stock price from under $10 to over $85. They did it by changing their business model from the ground up and investing in digital media content.

64 Sep 18, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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What I Learned From Being Cancer Free

Seven Years of Freedom

61 🔒 Sep 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Has Venture Lost Its Soul?

A Book Review of The Power Law

60 Jul 15, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Software is Eating the Individual

The Embedded Human

58 🔒 Jun 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Joe Rogan: The Platform-Proof Creator

Spotify’s No-Win Predicament

54 🔒 Feb 25, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The AI Writer

How tech is changing what it means to be an author

53 🔒 Sep 22, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Pinterest Has a Chance

The first full-stack shopping platform

52 Nov 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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NFT Projects are just MLMs for Tech Elites

A somewhat impartial review of current NFT business models

52 Sep 30, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Cash—Kingmaker or Killer?

A examination of when cash can anoint a market winner

52 Apr 28, 2022 by Kyle Harrison

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Investing on Instinct

Why the best deals are done with no data at all

51 🔒 Dec 1, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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The Investment Opportunity in School Bus Operators

Many schools have closed, representing a unique opportunity to buy school bus operators. With a strong moat, now might be the right time to buy.

50 Sep 4, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Cash Conversion Cycle: Bridging the Gap Between Profitability & Cash Flow

What is the Cash Conversion Cycle and why is it useful? In this post, we discuss the Cash Conversion Cycle formula, an example calculation, and a comparison of public retailer IPOs.

49 🔒 Nov 12, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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How Do You Compete with Free?

Notion: The Embattled Artist

48 🔒 Nov 24, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Why Software is More Profitable Than Content

Written by... a content company

48 Jun 24, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Crypto Has A Use Case

How Braintrust Used Tokens to Kickstart a Market

47 🔒 Jul 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

47 Jul 23, 2020 by Adam Keesling