Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

You Probably Shouldn’t Work at a Startup

It’s overrated—both financially and emotionally

1 Apr 20, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Venture Capital Is Ripe for Disruption

A world where a billion is a drop in the bucket

Oct 27, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Death of a Flywheel

How Amazon and Berkshire got too big

Apr 27, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Every Software Business Has the Same Playbook

The strange contradiction at the heart of B2B SaaS

Oct 19, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Meditations on AI Mecca

A dispatch from a hacker conference in San Francisco

Dec 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Should You Fire This Newsletter?

In which I analyze whether I’m good at my job

Dec 15, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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When Creation Goes To Zero

Skynet Who?

Sep 15, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Meet Your New Finance Intern: GPT-4

How AI will reshape what finance professionals do

1 May 18, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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6 New Theories About AI

Software with superpowers

Nov 22, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Meditations of Vinyl Jesus

Music producer Rick Rubin explores the creative process

Feb 9, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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How Elon Wins

Twitter needs to pursue the algorithmic feed

1 Nov 3, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How Technology Giants Die

GE, Amazon, and the flywheel of death

3 Jan 26, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The primary trends I’m investing in next year

Inflation, web3, embedded fintech, investing in people, and the newsletter winter that is coming

Dec 16, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Bada Bing: Why Microsoft Wants Google to Dance

Surely nothing bad will happen with an AI hooked up to the internet

Feb 16, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An Intuitive Explainer for How To Lose Money and Win Anyway

9 Apr 15, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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The Inventor of the iPhone Has Some Thoughts

Build by Tony Fadell: A Review

1 Jun 2, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Twitter’s Probably Screwed

The Rugged Landscape of Digital Advertising

1 Mar 30, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

Oct 30, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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A Dearth of Secrets, an Excess of Capital: SVB’s Explosion

We may be entering a more ruthless era in tech

Mar 13, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Why Culture Eats Strategy

The Search For the Winning Formula

Sep 29, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

Aug 20, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

May 5, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Internet Is Still Early

Neither hellscape nor utopia—the internet makes society anew

2 Aug 17, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

3 Dec 1, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

Oct 14, 2022 by Evan Armstrong