Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

Gross Margin: An Indicator of Market Power

What America's Oldest Jeweler Can Teach Us About the Value of Bling

18 Apr 29, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Am I getting ripped off writing at Every?

Screenshots of my contract and the financial model I used to decide

32 πŸ”’ Apr 22, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An Intuitive Explainer for How To Lose Money and Win Anyway

83 Apr 15, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Announcing Napkin Math Fiscal Year 2021

After a short break, Napkin Math returns with a new writer

14 πŸ”’ Apr 13, 2021 by Evan Armstrong and Adam Keesling

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Revenue: It’s Simple, Until It Isn’t

Finally, a clear explanation of bookings, billings and revenue

118 Feb 5, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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A Local News Revival

How product, marketing, and cost innovations create a massive opportunity

8 πŸ”’ Jan 30, 2021 by Adam Keesling

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My Favorite Company Deep Dives of 2020

Taking a look at the best companies deep dives of the past year, including posts on Fiverr/Upwork, Carta, Tyler Corporation, CostCo and more

21 Jan 7, 2021 by Adam Keesling

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How Live-streaming Ecommerce Works in China

In China, livestreaming has changed eCommerce. Learn about how it works, what the hosts do during the steam, and how it could impact American eCommerce.

28 Dec 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

84 Dec 1, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Cash Conversion Cycle: Bridging the Gap Between Profitability & Cash Flow

What is the Cash Conversion Cycle and why is it useful? In this post, we discuss the Cash Conversion Cycle formula, an example calculation, and a comparison of public retailer IPOs.

44 πŸ”’ Nov 12, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Your Uncle Is Still Your Uncle: Ant Pulls Its IPO

Ant's IPO has been taken down. What happened, what do you need to know and what should we expect to see next?

12 πŸ”’ Nov 6, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Can Political Betting Markets Predict Election Outcomes?

Polls and pundits don't do a good job of predicting election results. But what about prediction markets? In this post, we discuss what makes a good market and what could cause it to be wrong.

17 Nov 4, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

94 Oct 30, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Nike: Direct Relationships & Digital Penetration

Nike just released their latest earnings report. We dive into their "Consumer Direct Offense" strategy, how they combined their brand marketing with technology.

31 πŸ”’ Oct 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Substack Rhymes With Medium

Substack can't decide if it's a CMS or a media brand. Neither could Medium. Their indecision will likely lead to similar outcomes.

125 Sep 26, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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How Chegg Grew Their Share Price 20x In Four Years

Chegg grew their stock price from under $10 to over $85. They did it by changing their business model from the ground up and investing in digital media content.

64 Sep 18, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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First Steps to Buy A School Bus Company

Last week I pitched the idea of buying a school bus operator. This week I tell you how to do it.

18 πŸ”’ Sep 9, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The Investment Opportunity in School Bus Operators

Many schools have closed, representing a unique opportunity to buy school bus operators. With a strong moat, now might be the right time to buy.

50 Sep 4, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Uber and Lyft Live Once Again

What drivers think of AB 5, why it was written, and the pricing differences between services

28 πŸ”’ Aug 28, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The Quest for Monopoly

A history of stock market exchanges: from fragmentation to monopoly, monopoly to fragmentation and back again.

69 Aug 25, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

90 Aug 20, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Sometimes You’re The Datadog, Sometimes You’re The Hydrant

The history of cloud computing, how DevOps and Observability became so big, and the fate of Datadog

11 πŸ”’ Aug 13, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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New York Times: Investing In The Long Term

A review of the Q2 earnings: growth in digital subscriptions, a fall in advertising, and a decline in APRU due to long-term investing.

9 πŸ”’ Aug 7, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Intangible Assets: The Invisible Value Driver

Book review of The End of Accounting: there are four problems with current financial statements and intangible assets are the biggest reason why.

33 Aug 5, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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GPT-3 Will Accelerate The Privatization of Internet Communities

What GPT-3 is, GPT-3's capabilities, if GPT-3 will replace jobs, and how it affects social media.

24 Jul 30, 2020 by Adam Keesling