Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

In Defense of the Unoptimized Life

Give yourself the space to be inspired

321 Jan 12, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Why MasterClass Isn’t Really About Mastery

And other lessons from a 9-figure edtech startup

249 Jul 1, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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You Probably Shouldn’t Work at a Startup

It’s overrated—both financially and emotionally

214 May 20, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Substack Rhymes With Medium

Substack can't decide if it's a CMS or a media brand. Neither could Medium. Their indecision will likely lead to similar outcomes.

202 Sep 26, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Product-Led Growth’s Failure

How a Scrappy Utah Software Company Ignored Every Silicon Valley Heuristic and Won Anyway

201 Jun 3, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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How Costco Convinces Brands to Cannibalize Themselves

An unlikely marriage where both sides win

188 Jul 15, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Revenue: It’s Simple, Until It Isn’t

Finally, a clear explanation of bookings, billings and revenue

150 Feb 5, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Snapchat’s Probably Screwed

Apple's ATT Fallout Continues

142 🔒 Jul 28, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Addiction Economy

Addicted, Overwhelmed, Oversubscribed: How Technology Hooked the World

137 🔒 May 26, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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AI Looks Like a Bubble

Investors need to take a cold shower

137 Feb 2, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Crypto’s Failed Promise

The problem with crypto-as-a-nation-state

132 May 12, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Venture Capital Is Ripe for Disruption

A world where a billion is a drop in the bucket

103 Oct 27, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The primary trends I’m investing in next year

Inflation, web3, embedded fintech, investing in people, and the newsletter winter that is coming

101 Dec 16, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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How Elon Wins

Twitter needs to pursue the algorithmic feed

100 Nov 3, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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When Creation Goes To Zero

Skynet Who?

99 🔒 Sep 15, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Should You Fire This Newsletter?

In which I analyze whether I’m good at my job

98 Dec 15, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Meditations on AI Mecca

A dispatch from a hacker conference in San Francisco

96 Dec 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An Intuitive Explainer for How To Lose Money and Win Anyway

96 Apr 15, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Bada Bing: Why Microsoft Wants Google to Dance

Surely nothing bad will happen with an AI hooked up to the internet

96 Feb 16, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

94 Oct 30, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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6 New Theories About AI

Software with superpowers

94 Nov 22, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Inventor of the iPhone Has Some Thoughts

Build by Tony Fadell: A Review

94 Jun 2, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Meditations of Vinyl Jesus

Music producer Rick Rubin explores the creative process

93 Feb 9, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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How Technology Giants Die

GE, Amazon, and the flywheel of death

93 Jan 26, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

91 🔒 May 5, 2022 by Evan Armstrong