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Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

Defense Tech Shouldn’t Be Sexy

Weapons are a necessary evil, not a hype-y consumer product

1 Sep 14, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

Pinterest Has a Chance

The first full-stack shopping platform

Nov 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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7 Reasons Media Is a No-Good, Horrible, Rotten Business That I Love Anyways

Plus a few things that bring me hope

1 May 4, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Shopping for AI Shovels: The MosaicML Acquisition

Why would Databricks spend $1.3B?

Jun 27, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Announcing Napkin Math Fiscal Year 2021

After a short break, Napkin Math returns with a new writer

🔒 Apr 13, 2021 by Evan Armstrong and Adam Keesling

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Recommendation Algorithms Are a Necessary Evil (Sort Of)

AI is about to remake our information ecosystem and it is past time for us to prepare

Mar 9, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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NFT Projects are just MLMs for Tech Elites

A somewhat impartial review of current NFT business models

4 Sep 30, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Investing on Instinct

Why the best deals are done with no data at all

1 Dec 1, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Why Software is More Profitable Than Content

Written by... a content company

Jun 24, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Cash Conversion Cycle: Bridging the Gap Between Profitability & Cash Flow

What is the Cash Conversion Cycle and why is it useful? In this post, we discuss the Cash Conversion Cycle formula, an example calculation, and a comparison of public retailer IPOs.

Nov 12, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The Investment Opportunity in School Bus Operators

Many schools have closed, representing a unique opportunity to buy school bus operators. With a strong moat, now might be the right time to buy.

Sep 4, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Dec 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How Do You Compete with Free?

Notion: The Embattled Artist

Nov 24, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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The House of the Bloody Mouse

Where does Disney go from here?

Dec 1, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Jul 23, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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A TikTok Competitor Is About to IPO—And It’s Deeply Suspicious

Triller's S1 raises questions about its numbers

2 Aug 24, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Crypto Has A Use Case

How Braintrust Used Tokens to Kickstart a Market

Jul 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Of Course You Can Beat the Market

Free your mind from the Efficient Market Hypothesis

1 Jul 20, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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What the hell is going on with Lambda School?

The complicated business of selling social good

2 Jan 6, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

4 Sep 28, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Tech stocks’ favorite lie to investors

How the LTV/CAC ratio is manipulated to take advantage of retail investors

1 Sep 9, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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How To Get Leverage On Your Ideas

The Power Output Equation

Mar 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An intuitive explainer for how to lose money and win anyway

4 Nov 16, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal

6 Jun 22, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Future of Fitness: lululemon Buys Mirror

Why subscription hardware is better than hardware, the cross-selling opportunity, how Mirror could lead to a connected home, and why Mirror is a call option for Lululemon.

Jul 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling