Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology, every Tuesday and Thursday.

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Napkin Math

Is Facebook Fixable

A Review of An Ugly Truth

3 Aug 13, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in, loser—we’re disrupting Oracle

Jul 13, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Snowflake: How a Revenue Retention Behemoth was Built

TL;DRThis is the second post on a deep dive in GTM metrics with a focus today on Revenue RetentionSnowflake is a software Dracula. It latche

1 Jul 22, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

3 Jun 13, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Will Tokens Replace Equity?

The Weird Future Ahead

1 Jan 27, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Reddit: The Internet’s Bellwether

Is AI training a sustainable business model for the future?

3 Feb 29, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The Race for New Payment Rails

Who is building the next Visa?

Apr 14, 2022 by Reggie Young

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Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal

6 Jun 22, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Apple’s AI Evolution: Built-in AI, Supercharged Siri, and Ecosystem Lock-in

Maybe the new world is the same as the old

Jun 11, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Twitter’s Shot at Becoming a Meme Stock

It’s Musk's world and we’re just tweeting in it

Apr 5, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Facebook’s Capitulation

Abandoning a Trillion Dollar Advantage

Jun 23, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Future of Fitness: lululemon Buys Mirror

Why subscription hardware is better than hardware, the cross-selling opportunity, how Mirror could lead to a connected home, and why Mirror is a call option for Lululemon.

Jul 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Curated: Expert Shopping Advice, Online

A three-sided marketplace to bring specialty retail to the internet

1 Jun 3, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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AI and the Vision Pro Don’t Need a Killer App

Software that drives hardware adoption is rarer than you think

2 Feb 22, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The Addiction Economy

Addicted, overwhelmed, oversubscribed: How technology hooked the world

1 Aug 13, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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ITDA: The Gamification of Financial Statements

How governments and companies are engaged in mutual manipulation

1 May 28, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Microsoft should buy Netflix

Netflix and Bill

1 Apr 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Patreon Should Buy Substack to Save Creators

The solution to the problem of social media is to build something better

7 May 9, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Spotify’s Quest to Own Your Ear

A Napkin Math and Trapital Production

Jan 31, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How Live-streaming Ecommerce Works in China

In China, livestreaming has changed eCommerce. Learn about how it works, what the hosts do during the steam, and how it could impact American eCommerce.

Dec 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Tinder Is Way More Important Than You Think

The success of a dating app has huge implications for the U.S. economy

6 Jul 30, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The Right Kind of Asshole

A founder’s personality can differentiate them—or destroy them

4 May 7, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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GPT-3 Will Accelerate The Privatization of Internet Communities

What GPT-3 is, GPT-3's capabilities, if GPT-3 will replace jobs, and how it affects social media.

Jul 30, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Look On My Works, Ye Mighty, and Despair

I Have Some Thoughts To Share

1 Jun 30, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Books, Videos, Movies, and TV Shows That Changed Me Last Year

If you want to develop great taste, you must taste a lot of stuff

2 Jan 11, 2024 by Evan Armstrong