Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Jun 3, 2024

AI Is Transforming the Nature of the Firm

By reducing transaction costs, AI will reshape how companies operate and interact

Jun 29, 2022

Look On My Works, Ye Mighty, and Despair

I Have Some Thoughts To Share

Jun 12, 2024

The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

Sep 4, 2024

Vibes-based Search

The next big disruption in software is here, and it understands what you’re looking for better than you do

Jul 29, 2024

Tinder Is Way More Important Than You Think

The success of a dating app has huge implications for the U.S. economy

Jan 30, 2022

Spotify’s Quest to Own Your Ear

A Napkin Math and Trapital Production

Jan 5, 2022

What the hell is going on with Lambda School?

The complicated business of selling social good

Mar 22, 2022

BIG announcement incoming

I'm going full time on Napkin Math

Jun 26, 2023

Shopping for AI Shovels: The MosaicML Acquisition

Why would Databricks spend $1.3B?

Apr 13, 2022

The Race for New Payment Rails

Who is building the next Visa?

Jul 10, 2024

Searching for Signal

When building a startup gets hard, where should we turn?

Oct 27, 2021

The Creator Power Scale: A Formula to Determine if Platforms are Ripping You Off

An examination of the Twitch Hack data

Jan 24, 2024

The Zone of Deployment

How can you know when to invest?

Jan 8, 2025

More Output, Less Effort

8 pieces of technology that have dramatically improved my life

Jun 22, 2022

Facebook’s Capitulation

Abandoning a Trillion Dollar Advantage

Feb 5, 2024

Profit, Power, and the Vision Pro

Will Apple’s new headset change everything?

Jul 27, 2021

Twilio’s Second Act

Twilio rode its API to a $66B valuation. Now it’s trying to become the Universal Switchboard for the internet.

Sep 22, 2024

What Are AI Agents—And Who Profits From Them?

The newest wave of AI research is changing everything

Nov 15, 2023

COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An intuitive explainer for how to lose money and win anyway

Sep 27, 2023

The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

Jan 12, 2022

3 Thoughts On Justworks

The newest SaaS company to hit the public markets

Apr 3, 2024

How I Use ChatGPT (As a Reasonable Person)

My AI awakening

Jul 22, 2024

Vibes Are a Legitimate Economic Indicator

In her debut book, Kyla Scanlon makes the case for feeling the numbers

May 6, 2024

The Right Kind of Asshole

A founder’s personality can differentiate them—or destroy them