Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Jul 22, 2021

Snowflake: How a Revenue Retention Behemoth was Built

TL;DRThis is the second post on a deep dive in GTM metrics with a focus today on Revenue RetentionSnowflake is a software Dracula. It latche

Sep 28, 2023

The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

Jul 23, 2020

Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Feb 27, 2024

What the Media Is Getting Wrong About AI

The future must be built on truth

Apr 13, 2021

Announcing Napkin Math Fiscal Year 2021

After a short break, Napkin Math returns with a new writer

Aug 24, 2023

A TikTok Competitor Is About to IPO—And It’s Deeply Suspicious

Triller's S1 raises questions about its numbers

Aug 5, 2020

Intangible Assets: The Invisible Value Driver

Book review of The End of Accounting: there are four problems with current financial statements and intangible assets are the biggest reason why.

Jun 13, 2024

The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

Jul 9, 2024

Paramount’s Dilemma: Content Isn’t King—Distribution Is

Half a century removed from its glory days, the Hollywood giant has a new rescue plan

Dec 8, 2022

The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Jan 16, 2025

God Is in the Bubbles

The politics of progress has a new manual

Feb 22, 2024

AI and the Vision Pro Don’t Need a Killer App

Software that drives hardware adoption is rarer than you think

Oct 24, 2024

How to Win Arguments and Manipulate Managers

Make your spreadsheets shape strategy

Jun 11, 2024

Apple’s AI Evolution: Built-in AI, Supercharged Siri, and Ecosystem Lock-in

Maybe the new world is the same as the old

Jul 13, 2023

OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in, loser—we’re disrupting Oracle

Oct 6, 2022

The Face That AI Built

My explorations in image generation

Jun 3, 2020

Curated: Expert Shopping Advice, Online

A three-sided marketplace to bring specialty retail to the internet

Feb 29, 2024

Reddit: The Internet’s Bellwether

Is AI training a sustainable business model for the future?

Jan 27, 2022

Will Tokens Replace Equity?

The Weird Future Ahead

May 28, 2021

ITDA: The Gamification of Financial Statements

How governments and companies are engaged in mutual manipulation

May 9, 2024

Patreon Should Buy Substack to Save Creators

The solution to the problem of social media is to build something better

Jan 24, 2025

Why Is Jensen Huang $120 Billion Richer Than You?

Hint: Nvidia’s success is based on much more than chips

Aug 13, 2024

The Addiction Economy

Addicted, overwhelmed, oversubscribed: How technology hooked the world

Jun 22, 2022

Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal