Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Jul 9, 2024

Paramount’s Dilemma: Content Isn’t King—Distribution Is

Half a century removed from its glory days, the Hollywood giant has a new rescue plan

Sep 28, 2023

The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

Aug 24, 2023

A TikTok Competitor Is About to IPO—And It’s Deeply Suspicious

Triller's S1 raises questions about its numbers

Aug 5, 2020

Intangible Assets: The Invisible Value Driver

Book review of The End of Accounting: there are four problems with current financial statements and intangible assets are the biggest reason why.

Jul 23, 2020

Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Dec 5, 2023

Death of a Flywheel

Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway got really big. Here’s why it might kill them.

Sep 9, 2021

Tech stocks’ favorite lie to investors

How the LTV/CAC ratio is manipulated to take advantage of retail investors

Apr 13, 2021

Announcing Napkin Math Fiscal Year 2021

After a short break, Napkin Math returns with a new writer

Dec 8, 2022

The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Jul 13, 2023

OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in, loser—we’re disrupting Oracle

Jun 13, 2024

The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

May 28, 2021

ITDA: The Gamification of Financial Statements

How governments and companies are engaged in mutual manipulation

Feb 22, 2024

AI and the Vision Pro Don’t Need a Killer App

Software that drives hardware adoption is rarer than you think

Jan 16, 2025

God Is in the Bubbles

The politics of progress has a new manual

Oct 6, 2022

The Face That AI Built

My explorations in image generation

May 9, 2024

Patreon Should Buy Substack to Save Creators

The solution to the problem of social media is to build something better

Aug 13, 2021

Is Facebook Fixable

A Review of An Ugly Truth

Jun 11, 2024

Apple’s AI Evolution: Built-in AI, Supercharged Siri, and Ecosystem Lock-in

Maybe the new world is the same as the old

Oct 24, 2024

How to Win Arguments and Manipulate Managers

Make your spreadsheets shape strategy

Jun 3, 2020

Curated: Expert Shopping Advice, Online

A three-sided marketplace to bring specialty retail to the internet

Jun 22, 2022

Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal

Jan 27, 2022

Will Tokens Replace Equity?

The Weird Future Ahead

Aug 13, 2024

The Addiction Economy

Addicted, overwhelmed, oversubscribed: How technology hooked the world

Feb 29, 2024

Reddit: The Internet’s Bellwether

Is AI training a sustainable business model for the future?