Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Apr 22, 2025

The Leverage

Where you can find my analysis going forward

Mar 13, 2025

AI Is Breaking Media. Here’s How Publishers Can Survive.

Content is cheaper than ever to produce. That will bring devastation—and a new wave of opportunity.

Mar 20, 2025

Can the Startup Mindset Fix America?

Only if buttressed with smart policy, Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson argue in their new book, 'Abundance'

Jun 16, 2021

Finance is Broken But Don’t Worry, This Has Happened Before

Net Income and the Refactoring of Our Financial Ideology

Sep 4, 2020

The Investment Opportunity in School Bus Operators

Many schools have closed, representing a unique opportunity to buy school bus operators. With a strong moat, now might be the right time to buy.

Mar 27, 2025

Analyzing the Fastest-Growing Software Category I’ve Ever Seen

Who wins in AI coding—and who loses?

Apr 17, 2024

Don’t Dismiss the Apple Vision Pro

Apple has a hit on its hands. Will it seize the opportunity?

Jul 15, 2024

What I Got Wrong About VR

Whoopsie, I may have gotten a little excited

Nov 12, 2021

Top 12 Creator Platforms—Ranked

Who has the brawn to capture creator’s profit?

Jul 22, 2020

Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Jul 24, 2024

Can Anyone Compete With Meta’s New AI Model?

Zuckerberg’s open-source gambit could burst the AI hype—or save it

Jun 23, 2020

Why Software is More Profitable Than Content

Written by... a content company

Jun 9, 2020

Crash: Pitch a Company, Get a Job

Candidates earn jobs by putting in more work than their competition

Jan 29, 2025

Who Wins the AI Agent Battle?

What OpenAI’s Operator tells us about what comes next in artificial intelligence

Aug 14, 2021

The Rise of the Content Capitalist

In Practice Beta V2

Dec 8, 2020

How Live-streaming Ecommerce Works in China

In China, livestreaming has changed eCommerce. Learn about how it works, what the hosts do during the steam, and how it could impact American eCommerce.

Jan 7, 2021

My Favorite Company Deep Dives of 2020

Taking a look at the best companies deep dives of the past year, including posts on Fiverr/Upwork, Carta, Tyler Corporation, CostCo and more

Aug 25, 2020

The Quest for Monopoly

A history of stock market exchanges: from fragmentation to monopoly, monopoly to fragmentation and back again.

May 28, 2020

The Jet.com Obituary

The brand couldn’t compete against Amazon, but the acquihire was worth it for Walmart

Jul 30, 2020

GPT-3 Will Accelerate The Privatization of Internet Communities

What GPT-3 is, GPT-3's capabilities, if GPT-3 will replace jobs, and how it affects social media.

Jun 17, 2020

Explaining the Hertz Situation

A layman’s guide to bankruptcy

Jan 29, 2021

A Local News Revival

How product, marketing, and cost innovations create a massive opportunity

Nov 5, 2020

Your Uncle Is Still Your Uncle: Ant Pulls Its IPO

Ant's IPO has been taken down. What happened, what do you need to know and what should we expect to see next?

Aug 6, 2020

New York Times: Investing In The Long Term

A review of the Q2 earnings: growth in digital subscriptions, a fall in advertising, and a decline in APRU due to long-term investing.