Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

How to Make Millions on Discord

A new distribution channel has opened

Mar 26, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

Napkin Math

A TikTok Competitor Is About to IPO—And It’s Deeply Suspicious

Triller's S1 raises questions about its numbers

3 Aug 24, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Dec 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Jul 23, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Death of a Flywheel

Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway got really big. Here’s why it might kill them.

Dec 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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What the hell is going on with Lambda School?

The complicated business of selling social good

2 Jan 6, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An intuitive explainer for how to lose money and win anyway

4 Nov 16, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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How Do You Compete with Free?

Notion: The Embattled Artist

Nov 24, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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What the Media Is Getting Wrong About AI

The future must be built on truth

Feb 27, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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How To Get Leverage On Your Ideas

The Power Output Equation

Mar 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Crypto Has A Use Case

How Braintrust Used Tokens to Kickstart a Market

Jul 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The House of the Bloody Mouse

Where does Disney go from here?

Dec 1, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Tech stocks’ favorite lie to investors

How the LTV/CAC ratio is manipulated to take advantage of retail investors

1 Sep 9, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

4 Sep 28, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Of Course You Can Beat the Market

Free your mind from the Efficient Market Hypothesis

1 Jul 20, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Distribution Is King

What video games can teach us about building billion-dollar companies

3 Apr 16, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in, loser—we’re disrupting Oracle

Jul 13, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The Race for New Payment Rails

Who is building the next Visa?

Apr 14, 2022 by Reggie Young

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How I Use ChatGPT (As A Reasonable Person)

My AI awakening

Apr 4, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Apple’s AI Evolution: Built-in AI, Supercharged Siri, and Ecosystem Lock-in

Maybe the new world is the same as the old

Jun 11, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal

6 Jun 22, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Reddit: The Internet’s Bellwether

Is AI training a sustainable business model for the future?

3 Feb 29, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The Future of Fitness: lululemon Buys Mirror

Why subscription hardware is better than hardware, the cross-selling opportunity, how Mirror could lead to a connected home, and why Mirror is a call option for Lululemon.

Jul 8, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Intangible Assets: The Invisible Value Driver

Book review of The End of Accounting: there are four problems with current financial statements and intangible assets are the biggest reason why.

Aug 5, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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Twitter’s Shot at Becoming a Meme Stock

It’s Musk's world and we’re just tweeting in it

Apr 5, 2022 by Evan Armstrong