Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

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Napkin Math

Why Software is More Profitable Than Content

Written by... a content company

Jun 24, 2020 by Adam Keesling

Napkin Math

Announcing Napkin Math Fiscal Year 2021

After a short break, Napkin Math returns with a new writer

đź”’ Apr 13, 2021 by Evan Armstrong and Adam Keesling

Napkin Math

How To Get Leverage On Your Ideas

The Power Output Equation

Mar 10, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Of Course You Can Beat the Market

Free your mind from the Efficient Market Hypothesis

1 Jul 20, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Crypto Has A Use Case

How Braintrust Used Tokens to Kickstart a Market

Jul 21, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Dec 8, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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What the hell is going on with Lambda School?

The complicated business of selling social good

2 Jan 6, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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How Do You Compete with Free?

Notion: The Embattled Artist

Nov 24, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Distribution Is King

What video games can teach us about building billion-dollar companies

3 Apr 16, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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A TikTok Competitor Is About to IPO—And It’s Deeply Suspicious

Triller's S1 raises questions about its numbers

3 Aug 24, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Tech stocks’ favorite lie to investors

How the LTV/CAC ratio is manipulated to take advantage of retail investors

1 Sep 9, 2021 by Evan Armstrong

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Searching for Signal

When building a startup gets hard, where should we turn?

5 Jul 11, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

4 Sep 28, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Death of a Flywheel

Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway got really big. Here’s why it might kill them.

Dec 5, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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The House of the Bloody Mouse

Where does Disney go from here?

Dec 1, 2022 by Evan Armstrong

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Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Jul 23, 2020 by Adam Keesling

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A New Book of the Startup Bible

It’s the rare business book that you should actually read

5 Jul 18, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Paramount’s Dilemma: Content Isn’t King—Distribution Is

Half a century removed from its glory days, the Hollywood giant has a new rescue plan

1 Jul 9, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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How I Use ChatGPT (As A Reasonable Person)

My AI awakening

Apr 4, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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What the Media Is Getting Wrong About AI

The future must be built on truth

Feb 27, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

3 Jun 13, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in, loser—we’re disrupting Oracle

Jul 13, 2023 by Evan Armstrong

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Profit, Power, and the Vision Pro

Will Apple’s new headset change everything?

5 Feb 6, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Reddit: The Internet’s Bellwether

Is AI training a sustainable business model for the future?

3 Feb 29, 2024 by Evan Armstrong

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Apple’s AI Evolution: Built-in AI, Supercharged Siri, and Ecosystem Lock-in

Maybe the new world is the same as the old

Jun 11, 2024 by Evan Armstrong