6 New Theories About AI

Over the last few months, I’ve been obsessed with AI—chatting with AI researchers in London, talking product development with startups in Argentina, debating philosophy with AI safety groups in San Francisco. Among these diverse individuals, there is universal agreement that we are in a period of heightened excitement but almost total disagreement on how that excitement should be interpreted. Yes, this time is different for AI versus previous cycles—but what form that difference takes is hotly debated.

My own research on that topic has led me to propose two distinct strategy frameworks:

1. Just as the internet pushed distribution costs to zero, AI will push creation costs toward zero.
2. The economic value from AI will not be distributed linearly along the value chain but will instead be subject to rapid consolidation and power law outcomes among infrastructure players and end-point applications.

I still hold these frameworks to be true—now I’d like to apply them to six “micro-theories'' on how AI will play out. 

This research matters more than typical startup theory. AI, if it fully realizes its promise, will remake human society. Existing social power dynamics will be altered. What we consider work, what we consider play—even the nature of the soul and what it means to be human—will need to be rethought. There is no technology quite like this. When I discuss the seedling AI startups of today, we are really debating the future of humanity. It is worthy of serious study.

1. Fine-tuned models win battles, foundational models win wars

My consolidation theory posited that the value chain for the AI market looked something like this: