Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Dec 21, 2022

Meditations on AI Mecca

A dispatch from a hacker conference in San Francisco

Sep 29, 2022

Why Culture Eats Strategy

The Search For the Winning Formula

Dec 16, 2021

The primary trends I’m investing in next year

Inflation, web3, embedded fintech, investing in people, and the newsletter winter that is coming

Apr 15, 2021

COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An Intuitive Explainer for How To Lose Money and Win Anyway

Dec 1, 2020

Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

Feb 16, 2023

Bada Bing: Why Microsoft Wants Google to Dance

Surely nothing bad will happen with an AI hooked up to the internet

Oct 14, 2022

Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

Oct 30, 2020

What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

Aug 20, 2020

How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

Oct 5, 2023

Automate the Simple Stuff With Stupid Tools

This is the dumbest AI will ever be—and it’s still magic

Mar 30, 2022

Twitter’s Probably Screwed

The Rugged Landscape of Digital Advertising

Dec 21, 2023

Should You Fire This Newsletter? 2023 Edition

2024 is the year I go big

May 5, 2022

The Empire Stripes Back

A $100B Bet on Two Brothers

Mar 2, 2023

Should I Quit and Start a Franchise?

I’m wondering if I can deep-fry my way out of the apocalypse

Mar 16, 2023

Technology Is Good Actually

Startups screw up sometimes, but making things cheaper is a moral necessity

Jan 25, 2024

The Zone of Deployment

How can you know when to invest?

Jun 6, 2023

The Bugman Cometh

My sick, unexplainable desire to buy a face computer

Aug 17, 2023

The Internet Is Still Early

Neither hellscape nor utopia—the internet makes society anew

Mar 9, 2023

Recommendation Algorithms Are a Necessary Evil (Sort Of)

AI is about to remake our information ecosystem and it is past time for us to prepare

Jan 5, 2023

It Is Always Time to Build

Interest rates do not equal innovation rates

Aug 31, 2023

The Internet Demands Greatness

No one cares, so take more risks

Jun 22, 2023

AI Can Construct a Trading Strategy Now

And it means there are big changes ahead for what software can do

Apr 4, 2024

How I Use ChatGPT (As a Reasonable Person)

My AI awakening

Mar 23, 2023

How AI Changes the Media Business

Why community and social network effects will be key to winning the future