Divinations

Get smarter about business strategy.

Mar 27, 2020

Understanding the Covid-19 Recession

What happens when an economy holds its breath?

Sep 7, 2022

Book Review: Slouching Towards Utopia

The origins of economic progress, and what comes next

Apr 26, 2023

The Boy Who Cried Unicorn

Rating my predictions from 2020: what worked, what didn’t, and what I learned along the way

Nov 25, 2020

Three Shorts: Snap, Apple, Vox

On Snap's take on TikTok, Apple's developer fee reduction, and Vox's talent attrition.

Apr 30, 2022

Twitter as a City-State

The Argument for Democracy in Cyberspace

May 20, 2022

Mastering the Market Cycle, by Howard Marks

My chapter-by-chapter summary, with notes and reactions

Nov 9, 2022

Status as a Disservice

The blue check fiasco reveals a shallow understanding of how status motivates participation in social networks. Here is a deeper look.

Jul 12, 2023

Twitter Is Fragmenting

The future of social networks is in smaller communities

Jul 16, 2021

The Product Wedge: How To Scope Your Initial Product

How and why early-stage startups sacrifice power for growth

Aug 17, 2022

How Every Executes: two tweaks that generated ~54% more paid subscribers

Real data from our business showing how execution is exponential

Feb 5, 2021

A Post-Mortem for Social Podcast Discovery

Three reasons why RSS still dominates in audio, but not text.

Jul 3, 2020

Product Case Study: HEY

A radical new take on email

May 1, 2021

Spotify’s Upcoming “Open Access Platform” is as Surprising as it is Awesome

I hope it becomes a new paradigm for the creator economy

Apr 15, 2022

Elon is Right: Twitter Should Open Up the Algorithm

Commoditizing tweets’ complement (the algorithm) will increase usage and rebuild trust

May 20, 2022

How To Time The Market (Or Not)

A Book Review of “Mastering the Market Cycle”

Oct 11, 2020

Why winners sometimes take all, and sometimes don’t

Lessons from ecology’s “competitive exclusion principle”

Jul 16, 2020

Means of Creation #2: Greg Isenberg

On the unbundling of Reddit into vertical communities

Nov 16, 2022

Technology Waves and How to Ride Them

Advice for Generalist Founders

May 21, 2021

Why I Love Working at Startups

A friendly rebuttal

Dec 15, 2019

Strategy Drunk

A little Learning is a dang'rous Thing;Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian Spring:There shallow Draughts intoxicate the Brain,And drinking

Jan 16, 2020

Your actual competition

A guide to Porter’s “Five Forces” framework—through the lens of Spotify

Jul 11, 2020

Strategy should be painful

Businesses plateau for two reasons: Their strategy is wrong (Wrong Strategy Syndrome) They fail to execute any strategy at all (Fuzzy Strat

Sep 30, 2021

The Market Wedge: How to Pick Your Initial Market

How and why early-stage startups sacrifice growth for power

Sep 4, 2020

Strategy Smells

Hints that your strategy isn't working