Apple's Vision and AI's Biggest Questions With Reid Hoffman

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What does disruptive technology look like?

Marques Brownlee, aka MKBHD, doesn’t like the Humane AI pin. He did a fair, well-researched review, but his main idea was that it’s faster and easier to use his phone for common tasks. This is true, but it’s the wrong way to evaluate the potential of new technology.

Disruptive technology is always worse along the dimensions of performance most valued by mainstream customers. That’s why large incumbents ignore (or ridicule) it. Instead, it’s always better along some new dimension of performance that only a small, low-margin niche of customers care about—but they care about it so much that they don’t mind its flaws in other areas.

The right way to evaluate the Humane AI pin is to ask: What are the situations in which customers might be willing to ignore its obvious flaws for the advantages that the pin form factor provides?

I don’t know the answer, but it’s the most important question to ask if you want to understand the future. For more, read my piece from 2020 on how new ideas happen, which explains how new ideas in both business and science often look terrible—right before they change the world.

Elsewhere this week: Evan Armstrong explains why distribution reigns supreme for building valuable companies and the entertainment potential of the Apple Vision Pro; Rhea Purohit shares how VC investor Jesse Beyroutey and I try to outsmart Wall Street with AI; and I try to predict the inevitable emotional resonance of AI-generated content. On How Do You Use ChatGPT? Reid Hoffman joins me to wax philosophical about AI's existential implications. Plus: our take on the latest tech and business news. —Dan Shipper