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Map of a Downturn

Map of a Downturn

Untangling the complex causal chain that makes good times go bad

May 6, 2022 · 9 min readUpdated Sep 8, 2026

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I’ve worked in tech since 2010, just after the great recession, and pretty much the whole time people have been publishing articles warning that there was a tech bubble just about to burst. This sort of doomsaying got a lot quieter over the past few years, which perhaps in retrospect was telling. Now, the long-awaited tech correction might actually be happening. 

The combination of events we’ve seen over the past few months is the most serious situation I’ve seen in my career so far. So what we’re going to do today is walk through all the data points that matter, and try to make sense of how they all fit together in a causal web. By the end you’ll have a good picture of what’s happening and how it all connects.

Let’s start by going over the data.

What is happening?

1. Stocks are down

Particularly tech stocks:

Jason Goepfert@jasongoepfertInternal Nasdaq damage:😒More than 45% of stocks down 50%😢More than 22% of stocks down 75%🤬More than 5% of stocks down 90%.The only comparisons are Oct 2000 - Oct '02 and Nov 2008 - Apr '09. April 29th 2022, 9:01am EST1k Retweets4k Likes

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