Nathan Baschez is the cofounder and CEO of AI word processor Lex. He cofounded Every, was the first employee at Substack, and co-created Product Hunt.
Map of a Downturn
Untangling the complex causal chain that makes good times go bad
May 6, 2022 · 9 min readUpdated May 11, 2026
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I’ve worked in tech since 2010, just after the great recession, and pretty much the whole time people have been publishing articles warning that there was a tech bubble just about to burst. This sort of doomsaying got a lot quieter over the past few years, which perhaps in retrospect was telling. Now, the long-awaited tech correction might actually be happening.
The combination of events we’ve seen over the past few months is the most serious situation I’ve seen in my career so far. So what we’re going to do today is walk through all the data points that matter, and try to make sense of how they all fit together in a causal web. By the end you’ll have a good picture of what’s happening and how it all connects.
Let’s start by going over the data.
What is happening?
1. Stocks are down
Particularly tech stocks:
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