What I got wrong about Quibi

A post-mortem for a failed prediction, and a failed startup

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đź”’ This is a preview of a Divinations Premium post!

Back in March, a few weeks before Quibi launched, I decided to write an essay that would make the bull case for the service. I hadn’t used the product yet or watched any of the content. I had the same feeling everyone else did that something was weird about a company raising nearly $2b before launch. But, the more I researched Quibi and thought through their strategy, the more excited I got. So I decided to go out on a limb.

After about a month, I began to realize I may have been wrong. Soon after, the New York Times published an interview with Jeffrey Katzenberg, blaming everything on the pandemic. I posted a thread for readers to share their theories of why Quibi’s strategy wasn’t working as expected. It was actually quite awesome. Quibi’s CPO, Tom Conrad, even chimed in!

Then, gradually, Quibi receded from my focus. Until today. 

So — what happened? Why did Quibi fail, and what did I get wrong in my original analysis?


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