The Summer (Prediction) Games

Welcome to the Prediction Game. In December, over 1,000 participants filled out 20 questions to predict the future in 2021. We'll be following up and tracking those predictions as the year unfolds. We’re also exploring the science and mysticism of predicting the future. Our first spotlight on how to predict the future can be found here.

COVID cases have gone down, and then up again here in the United States, not unlike crypto prices. The Olympics have come and gone, and so has the Governor of New York. Lionel Messi isn’t even a Barcelona player anymore, which some of you predicted with stunning accuracy (I’m looking at you Daniel and Bhushan)! We are truly living in unprecedented times. 

We have a quick mid-game (ish) recap to share with you, along with a brand new leaderboard, and a check-in with the Every Index. Strap in, folks it’s going to be a wild ride. 

So, what’s happened since April?

The vaccine roll out was just hitting its stride here in the United States, and after hitting the Anti-Vaxx Trough of Hesitancy™ we’re on the upswing once again, largely due to the Delta variant tearing through the nation. If you haven’t yet, getting vaccinated is free, safe, and super easy. Quite simply, it can save your life, the lives of the people you care about, and the lives of millions of folks you’ve never met. And while we’re at it, let’s pour one out for the entire SEO team at Delta Airlines. 

In the world of sports, Manchester City comfortably won another Premier League title (which 14.5% of Prediction Game players predicted), and shortly thereafter uncomfortably lost the Champions League final to their neighbors to the south, Chelsea FC (only 4.9% of players predicted this one!). The Milwaukee Bucks won the NBA Finals, and our collective hearts, and a young promising upstart named Lionel Messi was forced to leave his club to join the only team at this point that might be its own version of the European Super League, Paris Saint-Germain. 

Speaking of extremely wealthy entities, we’ve sent some billionaires to space recently, representing the first baby steps in humanity (specifically, rich people) becoming an interplanetary race. Meanwhile, down here on Earth, us regular folks have been dealing with some unprecedented climate events from heat waves, widespread fires, and devastating floods. 

The 2021 2020 Tokyo Olympics entertained us, inspired us, and reminded us that strength is more than just how much weight you can lift, and that being a champion is more than just the number of medals around your neck. But, as long as we’re talking about medals, the United States won the most during the summer games, with a total of 113! This shouldn't come as a surprise, since nearly 72% of players predicted that the US would top the Olympic medal table.

We’ve also witnessed some truly awful events in the past few weeks and months, from the collapse of the Surfside Condo in Miami, to the devastating earthquake in Haiti, and the current crisis in Afghanistan. Each of the links above gives you an opportunity to help the individuals most impacted by these tragedies. 

So, who’s winning the Prediction Game? 

👥 Wisdom of the Crowd - 48 points

🏆 Daniel P. - 47 points

🥈 Jen L. - 40 points

🥉 Jeremy D. & Shrikala K. - 35 points

Congrats, Daniel! You’re currently the #1 human on the Prediction Game leaderboard. You correctly predicted Messi’s move away from Barcelona, and that the United States would take away the most medals in the Olympics. Add those to your other correct predictions, including the Georgia Senate race and Chadwick Boseman’s posthumous Golden Globe and that takes you up top. Jen, who was previously our number one with her spot on Bachelor Nation and Jake Paul predictions, is now 7 points behind. And third place is currently tied between Jeremy and Shrikala. Jeremy boldly predicted the unionization efforts of a large corporation, and Shrikala absolutely nailed their prediction that Harry and Meghan would welcome their second child, and that she would be a girl. It’s still anyone’s game though, as many “Big Predictions” still need to be scored, and several predictions may still come true by the end of the year. 

Just ahead of all of these geniuses, though, is the Wisdom of the Crowd at 48 points. The Wisdom of the Crowd takes the most popular answers for each question from all 1,004 entries of the Prediction Game, and if our 1st place participant happens to beat the Wisdom of the Crowd by the end of the year, they’ll win a ✨ special prize ✨. Oooooooohhhh. 

And how’s our prize doing? 

The Every Index has stayed relatively flat, with just a 1.75% increase in value since our last update. That still represents 36.39% growth from its original value of $1,000 which is not too shabby. Crypto continues to be the driving force behind the growth of Index, with Sari Azout and Seyi Taylor selecting Ethereum, which has gone up roughly 340% since the start of the Index, and Brett Goldstein and Gaby Goldberg selecting Bitcoin, which has gone up by about 64%. 

That’s it for now. We still have lots of exciting things planned, including a deep dive into other ways of looking into the future. We’ll see you then!