Think of your favorite piece of software. It might be an app on your iPhone or a website you check daily. In a few years—or months—you’ll be able to make something that good yourself, for almost no money. Software will be as plentiful as water and electricity are today. The barriers to creating software that has never existed before will approach zero.
In a world of cheap and abundant software, the software market will begin to resemble creative industries like film, books, painting, and music. In these fields, the best of the best are a lot better than the rest. Think Christopher Nolan. Or James Turrell. The most creative software will likewise rise to the top. We’ll also see new forms and formats that weren’t possible before—the software equivalents of SoundCloud rap, streetwear, and YouTube.
The impact of “anyone can make software now” will be as much cultural as commercial. In fact, I would argue that our society and what it values will change far more than the way we make video calls with colleagues or send messages to friends. Yes, you can now make a Google Meet clone in a fraction of the time, for a fraction of the cost. But that’s like reproducing a print magazine on the web.
Which is all to say, if you want to know what happens next in the software industry, my instinct is we should study the history of fine arts and film as much as the Industrial Revolution.
